Are you perplexed by sports betting experts who recommend betting against the spread? If so, you’re not alone. But if you understand that it’s all in the numbers, the confusion lifts. Essentially, with sports betting expert picks, against the spread tips offer a better chance for making money on your bets. Here’s how the numbers support that contention.
It’s Risky to Bet Favorites
Whether he’s betting the money line or against the spread, the average bettor tends to put his money on the favorite team. Overall, there’s a persistent belief that good teams and players are better than they really are. Professional handicappers who provide sports betting picks for a living understand that the difference between the best player in a position and the worst player in the same position is minimal. That means that there’s always a chance that a “worse” team will have a good day and pull off an upset.
On the other hand, when you’re betting against the spread, you don’t even need the underdog to pull off an upset. That’s because the point spread is designed to neutralize the skill advantage that one team has over another. In other words, the Falcons may be 3-point favorites to kick butt when they meet the Bengals on the field, but those three points could easily give you the winning bet if you pay attention to the right sports betting expert tips. Against the spread betting lets you sports handicapper hedge your bets. In other words, the Bengals don’t have to win. They just can’t lose by more than three points.
So how does that work out over the course of a few seasons? Ask anyone who follows NFL predictions or hands out football picks for a living. In a typical season, when there’s a sizable point spread on a match, the underdogs cover the spread more than half the time.
The bottom line? When you’re betting against the spread, take a chance on the underdog. The stats are on your side.
Not All Underdogs are Equal
It goes without saying that every underdog won’t be a winner, but some have a better shot at it than others. Years ago, a well-known sports handicapper came up with the term Power Underdog – good teams that happen to be underdogs going into a particular game. More specifically, he often recommended betting on teams that had a good shot at winning on the moneyline, or at least covering the point spread when they were rated as underdogs. The numbers for this betting strategy are even better than just straight betting on the underdog: since 1985, ranked college football teams have covered the spread 59.4% of the time when they’re the underdog.